Let’s play a little game of What If?

What if you could buy a home in Portland today, negotiate the price, ask the seller to help buy down your mortgage rate, negotiate repairs, and maybe even get some closing costs covered?

Sounds pretty good, right?

Now, what if I told you that when mortgage rates were hovering around 3%, a lot of buyers couldn’t negotiate ANY of those things?

Welcome to the wonderfully weird world of real estate.

Remember the 3% Mortgage Days?

If you were buying a home back then, you probably remember the drill.

Find a house you like. Drop everything. Write an offer. Cross your fingers. And hope you’re the lucky winner in a bidding war.

Multiple offers. Waived contingencies. Homes selling almost as soon as they hit the market.

Buyers were practically doing cartwheels just to get an accepted offer.

And negotiating power? That was often in the seller’s corner.

Fast-forward to today, and the playing field has changed.

Mortgage rates are higher, affordability is a challenge, and plenty of would-be buyers have decided to sit this one out.

But here’s the thing: when some buyers leave the market, the buyers who stay may have more room to negotiate.

And that could be an opportunity worth exploring.

The Buyers Are Sitting on the Sidelines. But for How Long?

Here’s where things get interesting.

For the past several years, existing-home sales nationally have been running around 4 million a year. In a market doing 5 to 5.5 million sales annually, that’s a difference of roughly 1 to 1.5 million transactions every year.

That’s a LOT of real estate activity that isn’t happening.

Now, that doesn’t mean 1.5 million buyers are all sitting around with their mortgage preapproval letters in hand, waiting for rates to drop. Some have put their plans on hold, some have been priced out, and others may have decided not to move at all.

But there’s clearly a large pool of potential buyers who haven’t been participating in the market at the levels we once saw.

And here’s the million-dollar question:

What happens when a meaningful number of those buyers decide it’s time to get back in?

Let’s say mortgage rates ease, affordability improves a bit, or people simply get tired of waiting for the stars to align.

Those buyers could start coming back. Not necessarily all at once, and certainly not overnight. But even a significant increase in demand could change the playing field.

More buyers competing for desirable homes can mean fewer concessions, less negotiating room, and potentially more multiple-offer situations.

Remember those 3% mortgage days? Remember how quickly the advantage shifted toward sellers?

We could see some version of that dynamic return if demand picks up. Nobody knows when, how much, or whether it will happen that way. But it’s a possibility worth considering before deciding to wait another year.

Today’s negotiating opportunity could look very different in a more competitive market.

And that’s why I think buyers who are financially ready should at least take a look at what’s available now. You don’t have to buy. You just owe it to yourself to understand your options before the market changes again.

Today’s Buyers Have Some Cards to Play

Let’s talk about what this can actually mean for you.

Depending on the property and the seller’s circumstances, today’s buyers may be able to negotiate:

• A better deal on price. Not every seller will budge, but some will listen.
• A mortgage rate buydown. A seller contribution could help lower your interest rate, subject to your lender’s rules.
• Help with closing costs. Keep a little more cash in your pocket at closing.
• Repairs or credits. That inspection report doesn’t have to be the beginning of a wrestling match.
• Contingencies. Financing, inspection, appraisal, or even selling your current home first may be negotiable in the right situation.

Will every seller agree to all of this? Of course not.

Are multiple offers still happening around Portland? Absolutely.

But a smart offer on the right property can open up a very different conversation than it could a few years ago.

The trick isn’t just finding a house. It’s finding the opportunity.

But What If Rates Drop Next Year?

Ah, the million-dollar question.

Maybe they will. Maybe they won’t. Anyone promising to know where mortgage rates will be 18 months from now is making a prediction, not a guarantee.

But let’s say rates do come down.

More buyers could jump back into the market. More competition could follow. And sellers with desirable homes might find themselves in a stronger negotiating position.

You could end up with a lower mortgage rate but fewer opportunities to negotiate on price, closing costs, or repairs.

Or the market could take a different turn entirely.

The point isn’t to predict the future. It’s to recognize that waiting has trade-offs, too.

And if you find a home you love, the numbers work, and you can negotiate favorable terms today, why automatically rule it out because rates aren’t where you’d like them to be?

What If You Need to Sell AND Buy?

This conversation isn’t just for first-time buyers.

Maybe you’re tired of the stairs. Maybe the kids have moved out. Maybe you need more space, less space, a different neighborhood, or simply a change of scenery.

If you’re selling one home and buying another, there’s more to consider than just your next mortgage rate.

You need to look at what you can sell for, what you’ll pay for the next place, how much equity you have, and where you might negotiate on both sides.

There may be opportunities. There may be challenges, too.

But you won’t know until you run the numbers.

And no, you don’t have to put your life on hold until the Federal Reserve, the bond market, and every mortgage lender in America make you happy.

Wouldn’t that be nice, though?

My Advice? Don’t Wait for Perfect.

I’ve been in the Portland real estate business for 13 years, and if there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that the “perfect” market is usually easier to recognize in hindsight.

The best time to buy depends on your finances, your plans, and the property you’re considering — not just the interest rate of the day.

If the numbers don’t work right now, don’t force it.

But if you’ve been sitting on the fence simply because you’re waiting for rates to drop, it might be worth taking another look.

You may have more negotiating power than you think.

And if rates do drop down the road, refinancing may be an option for qualified borrowers, although it comes with its own costs and uncertainties. It’s worth discussing that possibility with your lender rather than counting on it.

So, What’s Your Move?

Thinking about buying in Portland? Selling and buying? Downsizing? Moving up? Finally making that neighborhood change you’ve been talking about for three years?

Let’s have a conversation.

I’ll help you look at what’s happening in the neighborhoods you’re interested in, where the opportunities might be, and what the numbers look like for your situation.

No pressure. No crystal ball. No sales pitch.

Just a little strategy, a healthy dose of reality, and maybe a house you’ll be glad you didn’t wait another year to buy.

Richard Glass | ThePortlandBroker

ThePortlandBroker.com